On May 12, 1:26 pm, Charles Brenner <cbren...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> On May 12, 4:03 am, Dave Flower <DavJFlo...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
>
>
> > This hand game up last Thursday at Banbury.
>
> > Matchpoints, dealer South, vul none
>
> > 1NT(13-15) 2C(Stayman)
> > 2D 2NT
> > all pass
>
> > A K J x
> > Q x
> > 10 x x
> > 10 x x x
>
> > 10 x x
> > A 9 x
> > A x x
> > K Q x x
>
> > Opening lead Hx (all x's are small!), I tried the HQ, but RHO played
> > HK. I won the third round (looks like 5-3), crossed to SA, and played
> > a club to the CA which held. (I don't think that this particular LHO
> > would duck the CA). The position is now:
>
> > A J x
> > -
> > 10 x
> > 10 x x
>
> > 10 x
> > -
> > A x x
> > Q x x
>
> > so, should I finesse the SJ, or play to the SA (or something else) ?
>
> > Dave Flower
>
> Ok, I'll bite. Spade to A -- probable down 1 or maybe make 3.
>
> Down 1 instead of down 2 will be worthwhile to the extent that other
> tables go down in 2NT or 3C, but since 1NT looks like a popular spot I
> don't think that amounts to much. A more interesting question is how
> will the declarers in 1NT play and how can we best catch up.
>
> Declarers in 1NT may get to this same position. If they play to the
> spade A, then if we make the same play we at best tie them if a
> doubleton Q falls, whereas by finessing we have a moderate chance to
> beat them. If they finesse the situation is similar -- we have a small
> chance to tie by making the same play, but a moderate chance to win by
> making the opposite play. I'm going to guess that for those in 1NT,
> less confident than you are of the heart and club positions, the spade
> finesse will be the popular play.
Nah, I take it back. The numbers don't sup****t my "play the opposite"
idea. If the 1NT declarer runs the spade 10 that'll make the contract
nearly half (say 46%) of the time. If we do the same we'll get a half-
matchpoint (American style) almost whenever the finesse works for an
expectation of 0.23 matchpoints. That's better than the full
matchpoint we get the 17% of the time that a spade to the ace drops a
doubleton queen on either side.
So that brings us to Dave's original suggestion (hint?) of spade to
the Jack. Sure, if it loses we may be down 3 for a superbottom, giving
up whatever small equity we had against the EW pair making 2H. As
against that, we gain an uptrick the 8% of the time that LHO has Qx of
spades and the clubs break 3-2 -- a chance not merely to tie but to
beat those who declare 1NT at other tables and run the spade 10. (In
fact I think the argument for spade to the jack is equally valid even
if the 1NT declarers also play a spade to the J -- it's just a better
play if you don't care between -2 and -3.)
Charles
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