On May 9, 7:19=A0pm, "raija d" <musti...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> "Eddie Grove" <eddiegr...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
>
> news:87wsm3428k.fsf@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> > "raija d" <musti...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> writes:
>
> >> Would you percentage gurus here please tell me what the odds are for
12=
> >> tricks in the following hand and enlighten me as to the formula etc.
us=
ed
> >> to
> >> come to the conlusion . =A0I would very much appreciate it.
>
> > I don't think anyone has answered your question. =A0The point is that
yo=
u
> > don't
> > usually calculate percentages of a hand. =A0Instead, you compute the
the=
> > percentage that a particular line works. =A0The odds for the hand mean
t=
hat
> > you
> > figure out the best line and calculate for it. =A0It is often
difficult =
to
> > decide on the best line, much less to compute its value.
>
> *******
> A common statement at the table or in a postmortem is =A0"it is a 60%
slam=
" or
> "it is a 40% game" so in fact, many people actually DO calculate the
> percentages of a hand and I was hoping for someone who knows what they
are=
> doing with math (unlike me), to insert the percentage as in "it is ____%
> slam". =A0Preferably telling me where the percentage(s) collected from.
>
> My initial ballpark estimate was little over 50% just at looking at the
> hand. This random estimate is the result of my superficial knowledge of
> percentages such as two out of three finesses makes it 50% and that suit
> breaks 3-3 in about 35 %. =A0Enough to carry me through most of the time
> (apparently, including this time...?)
>
> I think Bill Jacobs made it clear that it simply needs two out of three
of=
> the following, for 12 tricks:
> - Club finesse for the Jack -
> - Club finesse for the King -
> - Four heart tricks (3-3 split PLUS Jx dropping if 4-2)
> What is the combined percentage of these then? =A0I know it is over 50
but=
by
> how much.
> *****
>
>
>
>
>
> >> Contract is 6NT. Opponents were silent and a small spade is led.
> >> Unfortunately I don't know the exact spots but apparently no tens
other=
> >> than
> >> the ones shown.
>
> >> Axxx
> >> A10x
> >> KQxx
> >> xx
>
> >> Kxx
> >> KQxx
> >> AJ
> >> AQ10x
>
> >> TIA Raija
>
> > I also disagree with the lines posted. =A0It comes down to how you
play =
the
> > hearts. =A0I think you should finesse the HT. =A0The people
recommending=
> > playing
> > to drop the J beat the finesse when LHO holds xxx or xxxx in hearts.
=A0=
But
> > if LHO had those holdings, he might have led a heart rather than a
spade=
..
> > When you take that into account, I'd guess the finesse gives a better
> > line.
> > Maybe it doesn't, it is hard to say.
>
> > I'd win the SK, cash the DAJ wondering if maybe I shouldn't, then
finess=
e
> > HT.
>
> > Another point is that when calculating the odds of the heart splits,
if
> > your
> > line involves taking two club finesses, you should assume the K and J
ar=
e
> > in
> > different hands, since the heart split doesn't matter if they are in
the=
> > same
> > hand. =A0I haven't seen anyone mention this upthread. =A0The upshot is
t=
hat
> > 3-3
> > hearts are not quite the same probabilty you see in the standard
tables,=
> > since
> > you are essentially dealing 24 [non CKJ] cards to two 12 card hands
[whe=
n
> > it
> > matters], and even that is just an approximation unless you deal with
> > e.g. whether the spade spot led is consistent with their agreements on
> > leads.
>
> > I haven't answered your question either. :) =A0It depends upon how you
m=
odel
> > the
> > opening leads of your LHO, and even given such a model there might be
a
> > lot of
> > work to compute the odds at all accurately.
>
> > Why are you asking the question? =A0It's not worth worrying much about
> > whether
> > you bid a close slam or not. =A0That's what I tell pard after I
overbid.=
:)
> > It's more im****tant to figure out how to try to make the ones you bid.
> > IMO
> > the question should be how to find the best line, not what the chance
is=
> > the
> > slam makes.
>
> > Eddie
>
> ******
> I am not worried, I have a few quite satisfactory partner****ps:)
>
> I am asking the question to find out what percentage slam it is as in
"it =
is
> a ___% slam"
>
> Raija- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
Hi Raija,
Charles Brenner in the first post to you gave the quick and dirty
answer to the problem and how many would solve it at the table
(including me). Basically you have three items each having a 50%
chance of happening and you need two of them to work. Believe it or
not, that is 50% as Charles and Bill have already stated. If someone
ask me what kind of slam this was, I'd say it was a just better than a
50% slam.
I find most people quote a % for a slam that really is not right. For
example, How many times have you heard some one say it was a 50% slam,
just needing the King of trump to be right. And of course they forgot
to consider that they needed the key suit to break 3-2 also. That
would make it a 34% slam not a 50% slam.
Not sure how fine you wanted the calculations to be so I actually did
it a little bit more exact but it comes out to almost the same thing.
It can, of course be calculated but that probably won't change the
results by much.
Nick France
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