Re: What percentage 12 tricks

"raija d" <mustikka@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> writes:

> A common statement at the table or in a postmortem is  "it is a 60%
slam" or 
> "it is a 40% game" so in fact, many people actually DO calculate the 
> percentages of a hand and I was hoping for someone who knows what they
are 
> doing with math (unlike me), to insert the percentage as in "it is ____%

> slam".  Preferably telling me where the percentage(s) collected from.

Most likely, they are just guessing or approximating, perhaps +/- 5%.

For your hand, "it is a 50% slam".

> I think Bill Jacobs made it clear that it simply needs two out of three
of 
> the following, for 12 tricks:
> - Club finesse for the Jack -
> - Club finesse for the King -
> - Four heart tricks (3-3 split PLUS Jx dropping if 4-2)

Replace that by a heart finesse [roughly the same odds] and Charles
explained
why 2 of those 3 is 50%, except he ignored the implicateions of the lead.

Otherwise, you just have to enumerate the eight possible outcomes for 3
choices, approximate the odds of each triplet by pretending they are
independent and multiplying the individual probablities, and add them up.
Or you can be more careful and try to calculate the triplets exactly
with a lot more work.

> What is the combined percentage of these then?  I know it is over 50 but
by 
> how much.

That is a very long and tedious calculation, and the small difference from
50% is
significantly affected [relatively] by your assumptions about the opening
leader.


Eddie