"Eddie Grove" <eddiegrove@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
news:87wsm3428k.fsf@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> "raija d" <mustikka@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> writes:
>
>> Would you percentage gurus here please tell me what the odds are for 12
>> tricks in the following hand and enlighten me as to the formula etc.
used
>> to
>> come to the conlusion . I would very much appreciate it.
>
> I don't think anyone has answered your question. The point is that you
> don't
> usually calculate percentages of a hand. Instead, you compute the the
> percentage that a particular line works. The odds for the hand mean
that
> you
> figure out the best line and calculate for it. It is often difficult to
> decide on the best line, much less to compute its value.
*******
A common statement at the table or in a postmortem is "it is a 60% slam"
or
"it is a 40% game" so in fact, many people actually DO calculate the
percentages of a hand and I was hoping for someone who knows what they are
doing with math (unlike me), to insert the percentage as in "it is ____%
slam". Preferably telling me where the percentage(s) collected from.
My initial ballpark estimate was little over 50% just at looking at the
hand. This random estimate is the result of my superficial knowledge of
percentages such as two out of three finesses makes it 50% and that suit
breaks 3-3 in about 35 %. Enough to carry me through most of the time
(apparently, including this time...?)
I think Bill Jacobs made it clear that it simply needs two out of three of
the following, for 12 tricks:
- Club finesse for the Jack -
- Club finesse for the King -
- Four heart tricks (3-3 split PLUS Jx dropping if 4-2)
What is the combined percentage of these then? I know it is over 50 but
by
how much.
*****
>> Contract is 6NT. Opponents were silent and a small spade is led.
>> Unfortunately I don't know the exact spots but apparently no tens other
>> than
>> the ones shown.
>>
>> Axxx
>> A10x
>> KQxx
>> xx
>>
>> Kxx
>> KQxx
>> AJ
>> AQ10x
>>
>> TIA Raija
>
> I also disagree with the lines posted. It comes down to how you play
the
> hearts. I think you should finesse the HT. The people recommending
> playing
> to drop the J beat the finesse when LHO holds xxx or xxxx in hearts.
But
> if LHO had those holdings, he might have led a heart rather than a
spade.
> When you take that into account, I'd guess the finesse gives a better
> line.
> Maybe it doesn't, it is hard to say.
>
> I'd win the SK, cash the DAJ wondering if maybe I shouldn't, then
finesse
> HT.
>
> Another point is that when calculating the odds of the heart splits, if
> your
> line involves taking two club finesses, you should assume the K and J
are
> in
> different hands, since the heart split doesn't matter if they are in the
> same
> hand. I haven't seen anyone mention this upthread. The upshot is that
> 3-3
> hearts are not quite the same probabilty you see in the standard tables,
> since
> you are essentially dealing 24 [non CKJ] cards to two 12 card hands
[when
> it
> matters], and even that is just an approximation unless you deal with
> e.g. whether the spade spot led is consistent with their agreements on
> leads.
>
> I haven't answered your question either. :) It depends upon how you
model
> the
> opening leads of your LHO, and even given such a model there might be a
> lot of
> work to compute the odds at all accurately.
>
>
> Why are you asking the question? It's not worth worrying much about
> whether
> you bid a close slam or not. That's what I tell pard after I overbid.
:)
> It's more im****tant to figure out how to try to make the ones you bid.
> IMO
> the question should be how to find the best line, not what the chance is
> the
> slam makes.
>
>
> Eddie
******
I am not worried, I have a few quite satisfactory partner****ps:)
I am asking the question to find out what percentage slam it is as in "it
is
a ___% slam"
Raija
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