Re: What percentage 12 tricks

"raija d" <mustikka@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> writes:

> Would you percentage gurus here please tell me what the odds are for 12 
> tricks in the following hand and enlighten me as to the formula etc.
used to 
> come to the conlusion .  I would very much appreciate it.

I don't think anyone has answered your question.  The point is that you
don't
usually calculate percentages of a hand.  Instead, you compute the the
percentage that a particular line works.  The odds for the hand mean that
you
figure out the best line and calculate for it.  It is often difficult to
decide on the best line, much less to compute its value.

> Contract is 6NT. Opponents were silent and a small spade is led. 
> Unfortunately I don't know the exact spots but apparently no tens other
than 
> the ones shown.
> 
> Axxx
> A10x
> KQxx
> xx
> 
> Kxx
> KQxx
> AJ
> AQ10x
> 
> TIA Raija

I also disagree with the lines posted.  It comes down to how you play the
hearts.  I think you should finesse the HT.  The people recommending
playing
to drop the J beat the finesse when LHO holds xxx or xxxx in hearts.  But 
if LHO had those holdings, he might have led a heart rather than a spade.
When you take that into account, I'd guess the finesse gives a better
line.
Maybe it doesn't, it is hard to say.

I'd win the SK, cash the DAJ wondering if maybe I shouldn't, then finesse
HT.

Another point is that when calculating the odds of the heart splits, if
your
line involves taking two club finesses, you should assume the K and J are
in
different hands, since the heart split doesn't matter if they are in the
same
hand.  I haven't seen anyone mention this upthread.  The upshot is that
3-3
hearts are not quite the same probabilty you see in the standard tables,
since
you are essentially dealing 24 [non CKJ] cards to two 12 card hands [when
it
matters], and even that is just an approximation unless you deal with
e.g. whether the spade spot led is consistent with their agreements on
leads.

I haven't answered your question either. :)  It depends upon how you model
the
opening leads of your LHO, and even given such a model there might be a
lot of
work to compute the odds at all accurately.


Why are you asking the question?  It's not worth worrying much about
whether
you bid a close slam or not.  That's what I tell pard after I overbid. :)
It's more im****tant to figure out how to try to make the ones you bid. 
IMO
the question should be how to find the best line, not what the chance is
the
slam makes.


Eddie