Re: What percentage 12 tricks

On May 8, 7:58=A0pm, "raija d" <musti...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
> This may sound like an idiot question - and if it does I am prepared to
> expose my ignorance in case there are any who still are in doubt...
>
> How are squeeze possibilities (if any) calculated into the formula of
"wha=
t
> is the percentage/dds for 12 tricks", at the onset of a hand.

Its not an idiot question and on this hand I really have no idea what
squeeze might be available given the line I'd take to try to make.
You'd first have to identify a distribution that allows for a squeeze
when your original line won't work.  For example if I could still make
the hand If LHO had 4 or more hearts and 4 or more spades I'd
calculate the chance of that and then multiply that by chance of the
original line not making and add that to my chances of making.

As an example if I could see a distribution that had a 10% chance of
happening that would not allow my original line to work but would
allow a squeeze I'd multiply .10 by .48 (which is about 5%) and add
that to my original 52% for a 57% chance of making.

The problem with this hand is I can't see any simple squeeze but have
a nagging feeling that there should be some.

Nick France