On May 8, 6:14=A0pm, wheaties <dwheat1...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> On May 8, 12:29 pm, "raija d" <musti...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
> Would you percentage gurus here please tell me what the odds are for
> 12 tricks in the following hand and enlighten me as to the formula
> etc.
> used to come to the conlusion . =A0I would very much appreciate it.
>
> Contract is 6NT. Opponents were silent and a small spade is led.
> Unfortunately I don't know the exact spots but apparently no tens
> other than
> the ones shown.
>
> Axxx
> A10x
> KQxx
> xx
>
> Kxx
> KQxx
> AJ
> AQ10x
>
> TIA Raija
>
> =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
>
> Henry is right, the entry situation is dire. =A0In answer to his
> question:
>
> "Win opening lead in dummy, take club finesse of ten which holds. Now
> what?"
>
> Duck a spade. Win the return, cash South's minor winners cross to the
> spade ace (or heart ace if they returned a spade) and claim if spades
> are 3-3; otherwise play off the Ace of hearts followed by the KQ of
> diamonds (pitching clubs unless the King appears) to double squeeze
> the opps. You make if either major is 3-3 OR the hJ is stiff OR East
> has 4+ hearts and both club honours OR either opp guards both majors.
> The position as you lead the last diamond is:
>
> =A0 x
> =A0 Tx
> =A0 K
> =A0 --
>
> =A0 --
> =A0 KQx
> =A0 --
> =A0 Q
>
> As to the percentages (I'm no guru so these may not be exact):
>
> either major 3-3 is 36% + (36% of the remaining 64% =3D 23%) =3D 59%
> (leaving 41%)
> +
> Heart jack stiff =3D 1/6th of the 5-1 breaks (15%) =3D 2.5% of remaining
> 41% =3D 1% (leaving 40%)
> +
> East has 4+ hearts (half of 64%) and KJ of clubs(24%) =3D 24% * 32% =3D
> 8%
> of remaining 40% =3D 5% (leaving 35%)
> +
> Either opp guards both majors =3D non-3-3 break percentage times
> another
> non-3-3 break percentage =3D 64% * 64% =3D 41% of remaining 35% =3D 14%
>
> Total: =A059 + 1 + 5 + 14 =3D 79% * original club hook (50%) =3D 39.5%
>
> This is superior to taking a second club finesse (winning only if
> both
> honors are onside: 24%)
>
> If the club finesse loses to the jack, our options are far more
> limited. =A0We can
> no longer try for three-three spades or a doubleton heart jack.
> Assume
> a spade comes back. 3-3 hearts is 36%. =A0A better line is a second
> club
> finesse which is 50%. =A0We could hook the club queen, cash the minors,
> cross to the heart ace and play the top diamonds and come down to the
> same four card ending (see below). =A0We make if the heart J is stiff
> OR
> the hearts are 3-3 OR either opp guards both majors or East guards
> the
> rounded suits.
>
> =A0 =A0x
> =A0 =A0Tx
> =A0 =A0K
> =A0 =A0--
>
> =A0 =A0--
> =A0 =A0KQx
> =A0 =A0--
> =A0 =A0x
>
> Percentages:
>
> Heart jack stiff =3D 2.5% % of remaining 50% =3D 1.25% (leaving 48.75%)
> +
> hearts 3-3 =3D 36% of remaining 48.75% =3D 17.5% (leaving 31.25%)
> +
> either opp guards both majors 41% of remaining 31.25% =3D 13% (leaving
> 28.25%)
> +
> east guards the rounded suits =3D half of 41% of remaining 28.25% =3D
> 5.8%
>
> Total =3D 1.25 + 17.5% + 13% + 5.8% =3D 37.55% * second club hook (50%)
=
=3D
> 18.8%
>
> 18.8% + 39.5% =3D 58.3%
>
> Which is the long way to get to where Charles got to in the first
> place:)
>
> BTW, If the club ten loses to the King then it's still right to cash
> all dummies minor suit winners becore playing a heart back to your
> hand and cahsing the last two diamonds (otherwise, if you leave teh
> clubs intact you will have a nasty guess on the last diamond).
> Essentially, you give up on a spade-club squeeze against West in order
> to clarify =A0the position (as in the case were the ten loses to the
> jack) and to not squeeze your hand in the following position:
>
> =A0 =A0xx
> =A0 =A0Tx
> =A0 =A0K (led)
> =A0 =A0x
>
> =A0 =A0--
> =A0 =A0KQx
> =A0 =A0--
> =A0 =A0AQx
>
> Go for the major-suits or rounded-suits squeeze instead, retaining 3-3
> hearts as a back up plan.
>
> David
If the first finesse wins and you duck a spade, LHO is going to win
and return a club. At this point to try to find a major 3-3 you will
have to go up with the Ace of clubs. Yes it is now about your 58% all
things being equal. However, if the first finesse wins just cash the
two diamonds in your hand and then 3 hearts ending in dummy. Now if
the hearts are 3-3 you make which is about 36% and if they aren't you
cash your winners and take a 2nd club finesse. That works 50% of the
remaining 64% for another 32%. That means this line makes 68% of the
time vs your line of 58%.
When the first finesse wins, the odds of making have gone up. Your
58% calculation is not the odds of making from the opening lead, but
the odds of making after one of the club finesses has worked.
Nick France
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