Re: What percentage 12 tricks

On May 8, 3:46 pm, Nick France <gandal...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:

Actually you have to win the first trick in hand, cash 2 diamonds then
the K and A of hearts. If the Jack falls you can cash the ten of
hearts and now just need one winning club finesse.

Assume the Jack of hearts doesn't full, you take the finesse of the
ten of clubs.  If this wins cash the Queen of hearts to see if hearts
are 3-3,  If so you don't need the second club finesse so even if West
held up the King of clubs it won't help.  If the hearts don't break go
back to dummy with the Ace of spades, cash the diamonds and take a
second club finesse.

I think I have this right and if so, I have the 52% as originally
calculated.  Still not sure what squeeze if any I have with these
lines.

Nick France

***********

Nick, I think that on this line, if West has the King of clubs, 3+
spades, and 0-2 hearts you are going down.  (Crossing to the AS will
set up the second winner for the opponents.)

If that is the case, 52% is probably pretty close.

Still, if West does have the KC I think you are going down, so the
main issue for me now is whether the double club finesse is a chimera
(to use Lipton's language) or not since i'm not sure how good your
prospects are if the club ten loses to the Jack.

Henrysun909