Re: What percentage 12 tricks

> *** Spades 3-3 is not of equal likelihood to hearts 3-3 because of the
sma=
ll
> spade lead. =A0Small spade lead from Jxx or Qxx IMO is unlikely against
a =
6NT
> contract which makes spades 3-3 possibility close to nonexistent, IMO.
=A0=
In a
> vacuum, before the lead, the above calculation (to me, a
non-mathematician=
)
> looks fine.


And a small spade lead from four to the jack or Q seems even less
likely against a slam IMO.  I would guess LHO is leading from 3 small
actually.

David