On May 8, 4:11=A0pm, henrysun...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
> On May 8, 11:29 am, "raija d" <musti...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > Would you percentage gurus here please tell me what the odds are for
12
> > tricks in the following hand and enlighten me as to the formula etc.
use=
d to
> > come to the conlusion . =A0I would very much appreciate it.
>
> > Contract is 6NT. Opponents were silent and a small spade is led.
> > Unfortunately I don't know the exact spots but apparently no tens
other =
than
> > the ones shown.
>
> > Axxx
> > A10x
> > KQxx
> > xx
>
> > Kxx
> > KQxx
> > AJ
> > AQ10x
>
> > TIA Raija
>
> I think the calculation here is nearly impossible due to entry
> reasons.
>
> Consider this situation:
>
> Win opening lead in dummy, take club finesse of ten which holds.
>
> Now what?
>
> You can't get to dummy with a diamond honor, and in fact your last
> usable dummy entry is the A of hearts. =A0So I assume you would cash the
> AJ of diamonds and the KQ of hearts (to avoid ambiguity when you cash
> the diamonds) and cross to the AH.
>
> Assuming hearts haven't split 3-3, which would give you 2 spades, 4 in
> each red suit, and 2 clubs, what will you discard on the two diamonds
> in this position:
>
> xxx
> VOID
> KQ
> x
>
> Kx
> x
> VOID
> AQx
>
> In essence, you have to hope that West hasn't ducked the KC because if
> he has, and if hearts are not 3-3, it is very unlikely that you will
> make this contract. =A0He will win the KC and then throw you back into
> your hand with a black suit and you will lose your loser at the end.
>
> Since I see no obvious way to make the hand if West holds the KC and
> ducks it, it may be better to finesse the queen of clubs at trick 2
> and make it harder for West to find the duck. =A0I don't think it will
> be particularly difficult for an experienced West to duck a club to
> the ten at trick 2, but I may be overestimating the opponents again.
>
> Then, if the club queen finesse wins you have the chance at 3-3 hearts
> or a black suit squeeze.
>
> All in all, I'd consider this an under 50% slam if defended correctly.-
Hi=
de quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
Actually you have to win the first trick in hand, cash 2 diamonds then
the K and A of hearts. If the Jack falls you can cash the ten of
hearts and now just need one winning club finesse.
Assume the Jack of hearts doesn't full, you take the finesse of the
ten of clubs. If this wins cash the Queen of hearts to see if hearts
are 3-3, If so you don't need the second club finesse so even if West
held up the King of clubs it won't help. If the hearts don't break go
back to dummy with the Ace of spades, cash the diamonds and take a
second club finesse.
I think I have this right and if so, I have the 52% as originally
calculated. Still not sure what squeeze if any I have with these
lines.
Nick France
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