Re: What percentage 12 tricks

On May 8, 4:20=A0pm, "raija d" <musti...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> "wheaties" <dwheat1...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
>
>
news:3d557389-f873-4246-8460-cf3360d2af27@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
>
>
>
>
> > On May 8, 12:29 pm, "raija d" <musti...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> > Would you percentage gurus here please tell me what the odds are for
> > 12
> > tricks in the following hand and enlighten me as to the formula etc.
> > used to
> > come to the conlusion . =A0I would very much appreciate it.
>
> > Contract is 6NT. Opponents were silent and a small spade is led.
> > Unfortunately I don't know the exact spots but apparently no tens
> > other than
> > the ones shown.
>
> > Axxx
> > A10x
> > KQxx
> > xx
>
> > Kxx
> > KQxx
> > AJ
> > AQ10x
>
> > TIA Raija
>
> > =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
>
> > Henry is right, the entry situation is dire. =A0In answer to his
> > question:
>
> > "Win opening lead in dummy, take club finesse of ten which holds. Now
> > what?"
>
> > Duck a spade. Win the return, cash South's minor winners cross to the
> > spade ace (or heart ace if they returned a spade) and claim if spades
> > are 3-3; otherwise play off the Ace of hearts followed by the KQ of
> > diamonds (pitching clubs unless the King appears) to double squeeze
> > the opps. You make if either major is 3-3 OR the hJ is stiff OR East
> > has 4+ hearts and both club honours OR either opp guards both majors.
> > The position as you lead the last diamond is:
>
> *** Spades 3-3 appears not possible, because small spade lead from Jxx
or
> Qxx seems unlikely, so that option IMO can de discarded.
>
> > =A0x
> > =A0Tx
> > =A0K
> > =A0--
>
> > =A0--
> > =A0KQx
> > =A0--
> > =A0Q
>
> > As to the percentages (I'm no guru so these may not be exact):
>
> > either major 3-3 is 36% + (36% of the remaining 64% =3D 23%) =3D 59%
> > (leaving 41%)
>
> *** Spades 3-3 is not of equal likelihood to hearts 3-3 because of the
sma=
ll
> spade lead. =A0Small spade lead from Jxx or Qxx IMO is unlikely against
a =
6NT
> contract which makes spades 3-3 possibility close to nonexistent, IMO.
=A0=
In a
> vacuum, before the lead, the above calculation (to me, a
non-mathematician=
)
> looks fine.

And a small spade lead from four to the jack or Q seems even less
likely against a slam IMO.  I would guess LHO is leading from 3 small
actually.

David


>
>
>
> > +
> > Heart jack stiff =3D 1/6th of the 5-1 breaks (15%) =3D 2.5% of
remaining=

> > 41% =3D 1% (leaving 40%)
> > +
> > East has 4+ hearts (half of 64%) and KJ of clubs(24%) =3D 24% * 32%
=3D =
8%
> > of remaining 40% =3D 5% (leaving 35%)
> > +
> > Either opp guards both majors =3D non-3-3 break percentage times
another=

> > non-3-3 break percentage =3D 64% * 64% =3D 41% of remaining 35% =3D
14%
>
> > Total: =A059 + 1 + 5 + 14 =3D 79% * original club hook (50%) =3D 39.5%
>
> > This is superior to taking a second club finesse (winning only if both
> > honors are onside: 24%)
>
> > If the club finesse loses, our options are far more limited. =A0We can
> > no longer try for three-three spades or a doubleton heart jack. Assume
> > a spade comes back. 3-3 hearts is 36%. =A0A better line is a second
club=

> > finesse which is 50%. =A0We could hook the club queen, cash the
minors,
> > cross to the heart ace and play the top diamonds and come down to the
> > same four card ending (see below). =A0We make if the heart J is stiff
OR=

> > the hearts are 3-3 OR either opp guards both majors or East guards the
> > rounded suits.
>
> > =A0 x
> > =A0 Tx
> > =A0 K
> > =A0 --
>
> > =A0 --
> > =A0 KQx
> > =A0 --
> > =A0 x
>
> > Percentages:
>
> > Heart jack stiff =3D 2.5% % of remaining 50 =3D 1.25% (leaving 48.75%)
> > +
> > hearts 3-3 =3D 36% of remaining 48.75% =3D 17.5% (leaving 31.25%)
> > +
> > either opp guards both majors 41% of remaining 31.25% =3D 13% (leaving
> > 28.25%)
> > +
> > east guards the rounded suits =3D half of 41% of remaining 28.25% =3D
5.=
8%
>
> > Total =3D 1.25 + 17.5% + 13% + 5.8% =3D 37.55% * second club hook
(50%) =
=3D
> > 18.8%
>
> > 18.8% + 39.5% =3D 58.3%
>
> > Which is the long way to get to where Charles got to in the first
> > place:)
>
> > David- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
>
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