Re: What percentage 12 tricks

On May 8, 12:29 pm, "raija d" <musti...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
Would you percentage gurus here please tell me what the odds are for
12
tricks in the following hand and enlighten me as to the formula etc.
used to
come to the conlusion .  I would very much appreciate it.

Contract is 6NT. Opponents were silent and a small spade is led.
Unfortunately I don't know the exact spots but apparently no tens
other than
the ones shown.

Axxx
A10x
KQxx
xx

Kxx
KQxx
AJ
AQ10x

TIA Raija


==========

Henry is right, the entry situation is dire.  In answer to his
question:


"Win opening lead in dummy, take club finesse of ten which holds. Now
what?"


Duck a spade. Win the return, cash South's minor winners cross to the
spade ace (or heart ace if they returned a spade) and claim if spades
are 3-3; otherwise play off the Ace of hearts followed by the KQ of
diamonds (pitching clubs unless the King appears) to double squeeze
the opps. You make if either major is 3-3 OR the hJ is stiff OR East
has 4+ hearts and both club honours OR either opp guards both majors.
The position as you lead the last diamond is:

  x
  Tx
  K
  --

  --
  KQx
  --
  Q

As to the percentages (I'm no guru so these may not be exact):

either major 3-3 is 36% + (36% of the remaining 64% = 23%) = 59%
(leaving 41%)
+
Heart jack stiff = 1/6th of the 5-1 breaks (15%) = 2.5% of remaining
41% = 1% (leaving 40%)
+
East has 4+ hearts (half of 64%) and KJ of clubs(24%) = 24% * 32% = 8%
of remaining 40% = 5% (leaving 35%)
+
Either opp guards both majors = non-3-3 break percentage times another
non-3-3 break percentage = 64% * 64% = 41% of remaining 35% = 14%

Total:  59 + 1 + 5 + 14 = 79% * original club hook (50%) = 39.5%

This is superior to taking a second club finesse (winning only if both
honors are onside: 24%)


If the club finesse loses, our options are far more limited.  We can
no longer try for three-three spades or a doubleton heart jack. Assume
a spade comes back. 3-3 hearts is 36%.  A better line is a second club
finesse which is 50%.  We could hook the club queen, cash the minors,
cross to the heart ace and play the top diamonds and come down to the
same four card ending (see below).  We make if the heart J is stiff OR
the hearts are 3-3 OR either opp guards both majors or East guards the
rounded suits.

   x
   Tx
   K
   --

   --
   KQx
   --
   x


Percentages:

Heart jack stiff = 2.5% % of remaining 50 = 1.25% (leaving 48.75%)
+
hearts 3-3 = 36% of remaining 48.75% = 17.5% (leaving 31.25%)
+
either opp guards both majors 41% of remaining 31.25% = 13% (leaving
28.25%)
+
east guards the rounded suits = half of 41% of remaining 28.25% = 5.8%

Total = 1.25 + 17.5% + 13% + 5.8% = 37.55% * second club hook (50%) =
18.8%

18.8% + 39.5% = 58.3%

Which is the long way to get to where Charles got to in the first
place:)


David