Re: What percentage 12 tricks

On May 8, 11:29 am, "raija d" <musti...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> Would you percentage gurus here please tell me what the odds are for 12
> tricks in the following hand and enlighten me as to the formula etc.
used to
> come to the conlusion .  I would very much appreciate it.
>
> Contract is 6NT. Opponents were silent and a small spade is led.
> Unfortunately I don't know the exact spots but apparently no tens other
than
> the ones shown.
>
> Axxx
> A10x
> KQxx
> xx
>
> Kxx
> KQxx
> AJ
> AQ10x
>
> TIA Raija

I think the calculation here is nearly impossible due to entry
reasons.

Consider this situation:

Win opening lead in dummy, take club finesse of ten which holds.

Now what?

You can't get to dummy with a diamond honor, and in fact your last
usable dummy entry is the A of hearts.  So I assume you would cash the
AJ of diamonds and the KQ of hearts (to avoid ambiguity when you cash
the diamonds) and cross to the AH.

Assuming hearts haven't split 3-3, which would give you 2 spades, 4 in
each red suit, and 2 clubs, what will you discard on the two diamonds
in this position:

xxx
VOID
KQ
x

Kx
x
VOID
AQx

In essence, you have to hope that West hasn't ducked the KC because if
he has, and if hearts are not 3-3, it is very unlikely that you will
make this contract.  He will win the KC and then throw you back into
your hand with a black suit and you will lose your loser at the end.

Since I see no obvious way to make the hand if West holds the KC and
ducks it, it may be better to finesse the queen of clubs at trick 2
and make it harder for West to find the duck.  I don't think it will
be particularly difficult for an experienced West to duck a club to
the ten at trick 2, but I may be overestimating the opponents again.

Then, if the club queen finesse wins you have the chance at 3-3 hearts
or a black suit squeeze.

All in all, I'd consider this an under 50% slam if defended correctly.