On May 3, 10:27 am, vspo...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
> > > Responder should just bid 2H on his first turn. 4-card major
openers
> > > still have 5+ of the suit much more often than just 4. Also you
don't
> > > want opponents to find their clubs on the two level.
> > > Responder doesn't want to double 2C is this auction. Opponents are
> > > a huge favorite to hold 8+ clubs, making 2C odds-on to make.
>
> > Ummm... I don't understand this last sentence. Can you explain?
>
> > -- Adam
>
> expected tricks = trumps + (HCPs-20)/3
> estimates our expected tricks. This same equation applies
> for opponent's tricks.
> When you know opponents' have violated their law, you can
> double them.
>
> Opponents have half the points in the deck. You do not want
> to double their two level contract with an eight card fit. They
> will usually make it.
OK, your previous post didn't say anything about "half the points in
the deck". Occasionally there have been people in the past who,
seemingly, badly misunderstood the Law of Total Tricks to mean that
you can make as many tricks as you have total trumps, without regard
to high cards. That's why I reacted the way I did.
On the actual layout, of course, the opponents don't have half the
points---they have 17, which would mean just seven tricks using your
rough-estimate formula. However, at the time responder doubles, he
doesn't know that his partner has more than a minimum. Could he infer
it? He knows opener doesn't have 12-14 balanced, but he could have
12-14 unbalanced; still, opener failed to rebid 2D or 2H, which means
that responder may be able to infer that *either* opener has extra
values *or* he has an unbalanced hand with values or length in their
suits, which may mean that 2C really isn't odds-on given the info
responder has at that point. I'm not sure---a simulation would be
interesting. That's one of the problems I have with these particular
methods; if opener doesn't have a way to show 15-17 balanced,
responder doesn't know whether to play opener for 15-17 balanced or a
weaker unbalanced hand, and I think that really hurts his ability to
decide what to do at this point.
None of this is really relevant, since responder should clearly show
his heart sup****t at either his first or second turn. But it could be
relevant on a different hand (change a small heart to a small club,
e.g.).
-- Adam
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