On Apr 22, 8:34 pm, patpowerss...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
> White vs. red, IMPs
>
> I hold
>
> 3
> A9765
> 6
> KQJ962
>
> and pickup partner and I stumble our way to a 6H contract. Seven of
> diamonds is led and dummy comes down as
>
> AJT72
> KJ4
> AJT54
> -
>
> What is my best line of play?
>
> AJT72
> KJ4
> AJT54
> -
>
> 3
> A9765
> 6
> KQJ962
I see two chances, neither good.
Crossruff -- 1+8+1+2 tricks:
Win, ruff a diamond. Club king, ace, ruff. Spade ace, ruff spade. Cash
two clubs.
Hope to ruff 4th club with dummy's J. Ruff something to hand. Ruff
club high.
Now the opponents have discarded 3 times on the clubs, and three cards
remain:
dummy: small spades & diamonds
declarer: A9 of trumps, club.
The opponents remain with 5 trumps and a card. The hand is makeable if
RHO has Q10 of trumps, or if LHO has them doubleton. Hence about a 17%
chance (68%/4) that the trump suit is suitable, times about 20% that
clubs break with A onside and 4th round ruffable. 3 to 4%?
Alternative: club 10 tripleton, along with either hQ doubleton or hQ
third and club A onside.
Cash hK, hA. If hJ good, pull trumps & hope clubs favorable.
Otherwise, ruff finesse club.
This seems better -- 4-3 clubs is 60+%; 10 drops 3/7 -- about 26% that
the clubs are playable. hQ doubleton (or singleton with LHO) is 29%;
hQxx is 41%. Net: 26%(29%+41%/2)=13%.
Nice bidding.
Charles
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