On Apr 13, 6:07=A0pm, pauldepst...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
> =A0In fact, the action would have to be extremely marginal for the
> money cube action to differ from the cube action. =A0Of course, the
> score can be highly relevant if a player is 4 away or less or if the
> cube is very high.
Actually, in the second position, the match score and cube value
already matter a lot. mpetch (O) leads 8-away 13-away, the cube is
already on 2, it's going to 4, and may go to 8 -- and if it goes to 8,
it's going to 16.
Here's the position:
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ O:
| O O O X O | | O |
| O O O X | | |
| O O | | |
| O O | | |
| 7 | | |
| |BAR| |v
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | |
| X X X X X | | | On roll
| X X X X X | | X |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ X: (Cube: 2)
In a money game, X has at best a marginal redouble/take to 4:
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.408
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.592)
3. No double +0.396 ( -0.012)
Win G BG Lose G BG Cubeless Cubeful
0.588 0.144 0.005 - 0.412 0.009 0.000 +0.633 +0.408
After redouble/take, if X misses the shot, O should redouble and X
must drop. O's game winning chances are in the high 80s, and O's
gammon chances are about 10 to 18%, depending on what X rolled. So O
should double and collect 4 points, rather than play on.
At the match score, Monty (X) has a huge redouble/take to 4:
1. Double, take +0.772
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.228)
3. No double +0.441 ( -0.330)
Win G BG Lose G BG
0.587 0.150 0.005 - 0.413 0.057 0.000
If X misses the shot, what happens? In a money game, O redoubles to 8
and X drops. But at this score, O should redouble to 8 and X must
take!
For example, O misses with 6-6:
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take 87.00%
2. Double, pass 89.40% ( 2.40%)
3. No double 86.12% ( -0.87%)
Win G BG Lose G BG
0.870 0.006 0.000 - 0.130 0.002 0.000
For example, O misses with 4-1:
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take 85.99%
2. Double, pass 89.40% ( 3.41%)
3. No double 85.25% ( -0.74%)
Win G BG Lose G BG
0.860 0.175 0.000 - 0.140 0.003 0.000
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