"David Richerby" <davidr@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
news:xUy*96w+r@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> By the way, just to inject some actual data on the magnitude of the
> draw problem in chess...
>
> http://www.chessgames.com
has a large database of games, mostly
> between strong players. Their `opening explorer'[1] gives win/loss/
> draw statistics for the most commonly played openings. Of these, the
> moves 1.e4, 1.d4, 1.Nf3 and 1.c4 account for 98.3% of the 460,000
> games in the database. Restricting to those four opening moves, we
> see that:
>
> 36.8% of games (167,000) are won by White
> 36.6% of games (166,000) are drawn
> 26.6% of games (120,000) are won by Black
>
> We already have 63.4% of games ending in a win by one player or the
> other. Is it really necessary to `solve' this `draw problem'?
>
> Another issue is this: it is clearly seen that White has an advantage.
> White scores, on average, 0.551 points per game, compared to Black's
> 0.449 points per game. Any system that reduces the score for draws
> will make Black's position slightly worse, since he gets more of his
> points from draws. The option of giving a third of a point for draws
> would give White 0.490 points per game and give Black 0.388: White
> goes from scoring 55.1% of the available points to scoring 55.8% of
> the points. This effect is smaller than I would have expected.
a) The other idea being kicked around [and collated at Chessbase] is to
maintain current scoring systems in terms of overall points, but to adjust
the score for white draws to 0.4 and black draws to 0.6.
b) Its also interesting to me that statistics are from strong players
only,
and a comparison is to look at the just concluded Russian youth event, see
www.ruschess.com which is also repeated in this week's Parrot at
www.chessville.com where the full round-by-round scores are viewable, and
also by gender.
This is a relatively small sample compared with David Richerby's
statistics,
but nevertheless offer a different view of W : D : L ratios, for /most/
players.
c) To consult a larger basse of all players: can anyone offer current USCF
W
: D : L ratios for (i) adults and (ii) for youth/scholastic play?
d) I wonder if W : D : L is significantly different in the top 1% of
players
than to all other players of the game? And if so, then at /that/ level
some
experiments might be made.
e) Given the introduction of computers and also the net as means of
researching opponents games, I also wonder if the top 1% of players now
have
a different W : D : L ratio than, say, the generation playing during
1950-1980?
f) To confound the issue further there was a change in the post-Fischer
years to more invitational tournaments, where the same players encountered
each other over and over again - and I also wonder if this isn't a major
contributing factor to the W : D : L ratio?
Phil Innes
>
> Dave.
>
> [1] http://www.chessgames.com/perl/rerolpxe
> --
> David Richerby Lead Painting (TM): it's like
a
> www.chiark.greenend.org.uk/~davidr/ Renaissance masterpiece that
> weighs
> a ton!
|
